Counting Backward to Health Care's Future: Using Time‐to‐Death Modeling to Identify Changes in End‐of‐Life Morbidity and the Impact of Aging on Health Care Expenditures
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In most developed countries, as the largest population cohorts approach the age of sixty-five, the impact of population aging on health care expenditures has become a topic of growing interest. This articles examines trends in elderly disability and end-of-life morbidity, estimations of the cost of dying, and models of expenditures as a function of both age and time-to-death and finds broad improvement in mortality and morbidity among the elderly in the developed world. Reduced mortality and low growth in the costs associated with dying could reduce forecasted expenditures, but high growth in expenditures for those not close to death and for nonhospital services could create new economic pressures on health care systems.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it