Interest rates, commodity prices, and the cost‐of‐carry model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus between interest rate changes and commodity spot prices. Design/methodology/approach The cost‐of‐carry model of simultaneous equilibrium in commodity spot and futures prices is employed to gauge the effects induced by interest rate changes. Results depend crucially on the type of expectations that prevail for the commodity market in question. Findings Under mean‐reverting expectations, an increase (decrease) in the interest rate will cause the spot price to drop (increase) and commodity suppliers to dishoard (hoard) inventories. Under invariant expectations, the change in the interest rate induces no change in the spot price and no hoarding/dishoarding behavior among commodity suppliers. Under momentum expectations, an increase (decrease) in the interest rate will cause the spot price to increase (drop) and suppliers to hoard (dishoard) inventories. Practical implications The effects of monetary policy actions on commodity spot prices can be gauged employing the simple model developed here. Originality/value A novel application of the cost‐of‐carry model is presented.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it