Evolución de la discapacidad y la dependencia. Una mirada internacional
Bibliographic record
Abstract
La capacidad de vivir de forma autónoma constituye un objetivo prioritario de salud pública en las sociedades con un alto envejecimiento poblacional. Se examinan estudios poblacionales recientes que exploran una posible reducción de la prevalencia de discapacidad, y se presenta información sobre las necesidades no cubiertas de las personas en situaciones de dependencia. Durante las últimas décadas se ha observado una disminución de la discapacidad y de las limitaciones de movilidad en las personas mayores de muchos países de altos ingresos, entre ellos España. La disminución es clara en las edades inferiores a 85 años. Las tendencias de discapacidad en los mayores de 85 años son difíciles de estudiar por falta de información. Las tendencias de discapacidad dependen del aumento de la educación de la población, de la reducción de las desigualdades sociales y de género, y de la adopción de estilos de vida saludables. La reducción de la discapacidad también depende de la transformación del entorno físico y social para permitir un envejecimiento activo. Las ganancias de salud de la generación entre 40 y 65 años de edad no parecen muy altas. Se concluye que las reducciones de discapacidad en los próximos 25 años no serán tan grandes como las observadas desde 1990 hasta la fecha, exceptuando la posible reducción de la discapacidad en las mujeres debida a la disminución de los roles de género. La dependencia de ayuda de terceras personas tenderá a disminuir, excepto en el caso de la demencia. El recurso a las ayudas técnicas está aumentando y continuará haciéndolo. In societies with a high level of population aging, the ability to live autonomously is a major goal of public health. The present article examines recent population-based studies analyzing a possible reduction in the prevalence of disability and provides evidence on the unmet needs of dependent individuals.In the last few decades, disability and reduced mobility have decreased in elderly persons living in high-income countries, including Spain. This decrease is clear in persons aged less than 85 years old but the trends in persons older than 85 years are difficult to study due to the lack of information. These trends depend on greater education among the population, a reduction in social and gender inequalities and the adoption of healthy lifestyle habits. A reduction in dependency also depends on changes in the physical and social environment to encourage active aging. The health gains in the generation aged between 40 and 65 years do not seem high. The reductions in disability in the next 25 years will not be as great as those observed between 1990 and the present time, except for a possible reduction in disability in women due to a decrease in gender roles. Dependence on help from third persons will tend to decrease, except in dementia. Use of technical aids is increasing and will continue to do so.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".