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Winter Road Surface Condition Forecasting

2014· article· en· W1987981921 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Infrastructure Systems · 2014
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicSmart Materials for Construction
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAutoregressive integrated moving averageUnivariateComputer scienceLong-term predictionMultivariate statisticsAutoregressive modelSnowFlexibility (engineering)Time seriesOperations researchMeteorologyIndustrial engineeringEnvironmental scienceEconometricsEngineeringStatisticsMachine learningMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This study has attempted to address a challenging problem in winter road maintenance, namely road surface condition (RSC) forecasting. A novel conceptual framework for short-term road surface condition forecasting is proposed. This framework is designed to consider all important conditional factors, including weather, traffic, and maintenance operations. Salt applications are modeled by considering a history instead of one single-time interval of salting operations. In this way, the variation of snow/ice melting speed caused by both residual salt amounts and salt-contaminant mixing state is effectively incorporated in the forecasting model, enabling accurate short-term forecasting for contaminant layers. This approach practically circumvents a major limitation of previous studies, making the postsalting RSC forecasting more reliable and accurate. Under this model framework, several advanced time series modeling methodologies are introduced into the analysis in order to capture the highly complex interactions between RSC measures and conditional factors. Those methodologies, especially the univariate and multivariate integrated autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) methods, are for the first time applied to the winter RSC evolution process. The forecasting errors of surface temperature and contaminant layer depths are all found to be small. The calibrated models are simple in structure, easy to interpret, and mostly consistent with physical knowledge. Compared to existing models, the proposed models provide extra flexibility for refactory, tuning, and deployment.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.198
Threshold uncertainty score0.612

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.207
Teacher spread0.200 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it