Suitability of HEC-RAS for Flood Forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
At present, most river flood forecasts are conducted using a two-step procedure. First, flood routing is conducted, normally using hydrological models. The resulting flood peaks are then converted to water level forecasts using a steady flow hydraulic model, such as HEC-RAS. Recently, the HEC-RAS model has been extended to facilitate unsteady flow analyses, and while the numerical scheme is not robust enough to handle dynamic events (such as ice jam release floods) or supercritical flows, it does have the capability to route simple open water floods and produce water level forecasts at the same time. Here, the viability of the HEC-RAS unsteady flow routine for flood forecasting is examined through an application to the Peace River in Alberta and it is shown that accuracy comparable to more sophisticated hydraulic models can be achieved. Since many agencies already have HEC-RAS models established for floodplain delineation purposes, it would be a simple matter to extend them to the flood forecasting application. An ancillary advantage would be that flood forecasting accuracy could potentially be improved and simplified into a one-step process, without necessitating a time-consuming transition to unfamiliar models.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it