Using Synthetic Variables in Instrumental Variable Estimation of Spatial Series Models
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Identification of suitable instruments is a critical step for the implementation of instrumental variable (IV) estimation. A challenge is that, as the level of correlation between the instruments and the endogenous variable increases, so also do the chances that the instruments themselves will be correlated with the error terms. Contrariwise, when the correlation with the endogenous variable is low, the instruments may be weak and perform poorly. The objective of this paper is to explore the use of synthetic variables in IV estimation when the analysis is of spatial data series. The point of departure is the use of eigenvector analysis of the usual spatial weights matrix used in spatial statistics. Eigenvectors obtained from a transformed weights matrix are known to represent latent map patterns. Our proposal is to use these patterns to obtain synthetic variables for use as instruments in IV estimation. By their very nature, instruments based on synthetic variables are exogenous. Furthermore, they can provide relatively high levels of correlation with the endogenous variable. In this paper we consider two situations of interest: First, the case where there are no clear candidates for instrumentation and the instruments are comprised of purely synthetic variables; second, the case when there are substantive but weak instruments that can be enhanced by the addition of synthetic variables. The approach proposed is illustrated with an empirical example.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it