Population fluctuations of the western tent caterpillar in southwestern British Columbia
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Cyclic populations of western tent caterpillars fluctuate with a periodicity of 6–11 years in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. Typically, larval survival is high in early stages of the population increase, begins to decline midway through the increase phase, and is low through several generations of the population decline. Fecundity is generally high in increasing and in peak populations but is also reduced during the population decline. Poor survival and low fecundity for several generations cause the lag in recovery of populations that is necessary for cyclic dynamics. The dynamics of tent caterpillar populations vary among sites, which suggests a metapopulation structure; island populations in the rainshadow of Vancouver Island have more consistent cyclic dynamics than mainland populations in British Columbia. Sudden outbreaks of populations that last a single year suggest that dispersal from source to sink populations may occur late in the phase of population increase. Wellington earlier discussed qualitative variation among tent caterpillar individuals as an aspect of population fluctuations. The variation in caterpillar activity he observed was largely statistically nonsignificant. Recent observations show that the frequency of elongate tents as described by Wellington to characterize active caterpillars varies among populations but does not change in a consistent pattern with population density. The level of infection from nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) was high in some populations at peak density but was not associated with all population declines. Sublethal infection can reduce the fecundity of surviving moths, and there is a weak association between viral infection and egg mass size in field populations. The impact of weather in synchronizing or desynchronizing populations is a factor to be investigated further.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it