The Determinants of Cereal Grain Imports: Sub‐Saharan Africa, 1970–1997
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract: During the 1970s cereal imports in sub‐Saharan Africa increased at an annual rate in excess of 20 percent. As a result, it was assumed Africa had two choices: reduce the rate of population growth or become increasingly dependent on food imports and aid. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of food shortfalls versus policy choices that resulted in a taste change away from roots and tubers and coarse grains to imported wheat and rice. Of the 41 countries studied, 17 are still net exporters of food commodities, cereal imports serve to supplement inadequate production of food, but these imports, generally, are not driven by severe nutritional needs within any one country. Rather, the observed cereal imports are primarily wheat and rice flowing into the countries with adequate levels of nutrition available.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it