Bibliographic record
Abstract
There is currently little consensus on whether impartiality is necessary for the successful management of today's conflicts, especially when using forceful intervention. In this article we identify how combatants will react to forceful biased intervention by a third party based on the extant models of conflict and intervention. Under fairly general circumstances the favoured side is expected to de-escalate, while the targeted side is expected to escalate, in response to such a forceful intervention. Two case studies, NATO's intervention in Kosovo, and India's intervention in Sri Lanka, are then interpreted in the context of the model. While the cases highlight areas where the models and hypotheses need to be refined, they provide preliminary support for the arguments derived from them. We conclude with policy implications and argue that formal modelling can be a useful tool in trying to specify the conditions under which a biased forceful intervention is likely to either inhibit violence or act as a catalyst to it.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.017 | 0.088 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".