Attribution of anthropogenic influence on seasonal sea level pressure
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous analyses of sea level pressure (SLP) trends have often focused on boreal winter trends. Here we demonstrate that externally‐forced SLP trends are observed in all four seasons, with simulated and observed decreases in SLP at high latitudes and increases elsewhere. We find that the observed pattern of seasonal mean zonal mean SLP changes is inconsistent with simulated internal variability, and we detect anthropogenic influence independently of natural influence on SLP. When we divide the globe into the mid‐ and high‐latitude regions of both hemispheres and the tropics and subtropics, we find that external influence is only detectable in the low‐latitude region, where models and observations show increasing trends in SLP, and where internal variability is low, and not in the mid‐ and high‐latitude regions of either hemisphere. Low‐latitude increases in SLP, which are significant compared to internal variability, but which have previously received little attention, could have important regional climate impacts.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it