Trading Behavior on Expiration Days and Quarter-End Days: The Effect of a New Closing Method
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
On July 1, 2002, the Taiwan Stock Exchange changed its closing price procedure to a five-minute call auction. This paper examines different types of trader behavior at the close before and after institution of the new mechanism. The results show that, since the new mechanism was introduced, individuals have shifted their trades away from the closing interval to the preclosing interval, which worsens market liquidity at the close. This paper also finds that institutional investors try to influence closing prices for window dressing at quarter ends, whereas foreign institutions attempt to influence closing prices on the expiration days of index futures. After the new mechanism's introduction, neither the expiration-day effect nor the quarter-end-day effect disappeared. Despite this finding, the new mechanism does make it more difficult and costly for traders to attempt to influence the stock price.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it