Do foreign exchange risk premiums relate to the volatility in the foreign exchange and equity markets?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Empirical tests are performed to examine whether foreign exchange excess returns for the British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Japanese yen are related to volatility in the currency market and volatility in the stock markets. Our results indicate that volatility (measured by standard deviation and variance) from currency markets is significant in explaining the excess returns, suggesting that the excess returns are indeed reward for risk-taking. In addition, shocks in equity markets are found to have a significant impact on currency risk premium as well. In some cases, we find nonlinearity in the risk premium. Finally, our results emerged from Glosten, Jagannathan, Runkle's model (Journal of Finance, 48 (5), 1993) suggest that risk premiums for each currency tend to respond to positive and negative shocks differently.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it