Tracking origins of invasive herbivores through herbaria and archival DNA: the case of the horse‐chestnut leaf miner
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Determining the native geographic range or origin of alien invasive species is crucial to developing invasive species management strategies. However, the necessary historical dimension is often lacking. The origin of the highly invasive horse‐chestnut leaf‐mining moth Cameraria ohridella has been controversial since the insect was first described in 1986 in Europe. Here, we reveal that herbarium collections across Europe indicate a Balkan origin for C ohridella . We successfully amplified nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA barcode fragments from larvae pressed within leaves of herbarium samples collected as early as 1879. These archival sequences confirm an identity of C ohridella and set back its history in Europe by more than a century. The herbarium samples uncovered previously unknown mitochondrial haplotypes and locally undocumented alleles, showing local outbreaks of C ohridella back to at least 1961 and dynamic frequency changes that may be associated with road development. This case history demonstrates that herbaria are greatly underutilized in studies of insect–plant interactions, herbivore biodiversity, and invasive species' origins.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it