Wetter or colder during the Last Glacial Maximum? Revisiting the pluvial lake question in southwestern North America
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Well-preserved shorelines in Estancia basin and a relatively simple hydrologic setting have prompted several inquiries into the basin's hydrologic balance for the purpose of estimating regional precipitation during the late Pleistocene. Estimates have ranged from 86% to 150% of modern, the disparity largely the result of assumptions about past temperatures. In this study, we use an array of models for surface-water runoff, groundwater flow, and lake energy balance to examine previously proposed scenarios for late Pleistocene climate. Constraints imposed by geologic evidence of past lake levels indicate that precipitation for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) may have doubled relative to modern values during brief episodes of colder and wetter climate and that annual runoff was as much as 15% of annual precipitation during these episodes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it