Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Although rapid response capacity has been instituted in many cities following recent catastrophic heatwave events, the recognition that theoretically preventable heat-related deaths may occur throughout the summer has provoked much less response. This essay reviews published estimates of the general summertime temperature-mortality relationship characterised in different settings around the world. A random-effects meta-regression is applied to the estimates in relation to a number of standardised city-level characteristics of demography, economy and climate. Heat thresholds were generally higher in communities closer to the equator, suggesting some population adaptation. In almost half of the locations, the risk of mortality increased by between 1% and 3% per 1 degrees C change in high temperature. Increasing population density, decreasing city gross domestic product and increasing percentage of people aged 65 or more were all independently associated with an increase in the heat slope. Improved care of older people, residential architecture and urban planning measures to reduce high temperatures in densely populated areas are likely to play a key role alongside targeted heat-health warning systems in reducing future heat burdens.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".