Trends and Variability in Extreme Rainfall Events in British Columbia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyzes hourly rainfall data from a collection of tipping bucket rain gauges in British Columbia.The hourly rainfall data are used to define peaks over threshold (POT) rainfall events for durations of 1, 2, 6, 12 and 24 hours.This database is then used to define, on an annual basis, the number of over threshold events, the average magnitude of the over threshold events, and the largest over threshold event.Trend analysis is conducted for these three variables for each duration and for several common analysis periods drawn from the period 1966 to 2005.The identification and estimation of trends is conducted using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test for trend.The global, or field, significance of the trend results is established using a bootstrap resampling approach.The research reveals generally increasing trends in extreme rainfall, especially for the summer season and for the short duration rainfall events.Rsum: Le prsent article analyse les donnes de prcipitations horaires provenant d'une srie de pluviomtres augets basculeurs situs en Colombie-Britannique. Les prcipitations horaires servent dfinir les dpassements d'un seuil (POT) de prcipitations pour des dures de 1, 2, 6, 12 et 24 heures.Cette base de donnes sert ensuite dfinir, sur une base annuelle, le nombre de dpassements de seuil, l'ampleur moyenne des dpassements de seuil et la plus grande occurrence de dpassement de seuil.L'analyse des tendances est mene l'gard de ces trois variables pour chaque dure et pour plusieurs priodes d'analyse communes, tires de la priode allant de 1966 2005.L'identification et l'estimation des tendances est mene l'aide du test non paramtrique de Mann-Kendall.Le niveau de signification la signification globale des rsultats lis aux tendances est tabli au moyen de la mthode bootstrap de rchantillonnage.La recherche rvle des tendances gnralement la hausse dans les contextes de prcipitations extrmes, en particulier pour la saison d't et pour les prcipitations de courte dure.68
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it