System monitoring with metric-correlation models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Correlations among management metrics in software systems allow errors to be detected and their cause localized. Prior research shows that linear models can capture many of these correlations. However, our research shows that several factors may prevent linear models from accurately describing correlations, even if the underlying relationship is linear. Two common phenomena we have observed are relationships that evolve, typically with time, and heterogeneous variance of the correlated metrics. Two-variable linear models proposed thus far fail to capture these phenomena, and thus fail to describe system dynamics correctly. Often, these phenomena are caused by a missing variable. However, searching for three-variable correlations is O(n3) for n metrics, which is costly for systems with many metrics. In this paper we address the above challenges by improving on two-variable Ordinary Least Squares regression models. We validate our models using a realistic Java-Enterprise-Edition application. Using fault-injection experiments we show that our improved models capture system behavior accurately. We detect errors within 8 sample periods on average from the injection of the fault, which is less than half the time required by the current linear-model approach.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".