Political determinants of international currencies: What future for the US dollar?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In recent years, the economic determinants of international currency status have attracted growing attention among economists. But what about the political determinants? This paper proposes a framework or taxonomy for thinking about this question. It identifies two distinct channels – one indirect and one direct – through which politics can influence the international standing of a currency. In the former category, politics is important through its impact on three key economic determinants of international currencies: confidence, liquidity, and transactional networks. In the latter category, politics matters more directly when a currency's international status is supported by states for reasons unrelated to these economic determinants. The paper explores briefly how these two channels of political influence might influence the dollar's future as an international currency. This exploration is not designed to provide a new definitive answer to the question of the dollar's future, but rather the goal is to highlight the various ways that political scientists can widen analyses of this topic.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it