QuPARA: Query-driven large-scale portfolio aggregate risk analysis on MapReduce
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Modern insurance and reinsurance companies use stochastic simulation techniques for portfolio risk analysis. Their risk portfolios may consist of thousands of reinsurance contracts covering millions of individually insured locations. To quantify risk and to help ensure capital adequacy, each portfolio must be evaluated in up to a million simulation trials, each capturing a different possible sequence of catastrophic events (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.) over the course of a contractual year. We present a flexible framework for portfolio risk analysis that can answer a rich variety of catastrophic risk queries. Rather than aggregating simulation data in order to produce a small set of high-level risk metrics efficiently (as done in production risk management systems), our focus is on queries on unaggregated or partially aggregated data. The goal is to allow analysts to obtain answers to a wide variety of unanticipated but natural ad hoc queries, which can help actuaries or underwriters to better understand the multiple dimensions (e.g., spatial correlation, seasonality, peril features, construction features, financial terms, etc.) that can impact portfolio risk and thus company solvency. We implemented a prototype system, called QuPARA, using Apache's Hadoop implementation of the MapReduce paradigm. This allows the user to utilize large parallel compute servers in order to answer ad hoc queries efficiently even on very large data sets typically encountered in practice. We describe the design and implementation of QuPARA and present experimental results that demonstrate its feasibility.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".