The Behavior of the Current Account in Response to Unobservable and Observable Shocks
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The intertemporal approach to the balance of payments states that non-stationary flows in the current account will cointegrate or cotrend, unless there are permanent productivity shocks or long-run policy distortions. This paper examines the dynamics of the current account for a small open economy, using data from Sweden. The results show borderline cointegration for the current account. Recursive estimates disclose that there is no stable tendency towards finding cointegration. Cointegration is found for the first part of the sample, but from 1990 the cointegration test performs badly until speculative attacks force Sweden to give up the peg of the krona in 1992. In terms of the intertemporal approach, policy could be creating the imbalance, solved with the depreciation in 1992, after which the external accounts gradually move back to long-run equilibrium. [F31, F32, F41]
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it