Reduced FDG-PET brain metabolism and executive function predict clinical progression in elderly healthy subjects
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Brain changes reminiscent of Alzheimer disease (AD) have been previously reported in a substantial portion of elderly cognitive healthy (HC) subjects. The major aim was to evaluate the accuracy of MRI assessed regional gray matter (GM) volume, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET), and neuropsychological test scores to identify those HC subjects who subsequently convert to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or AD dementia. We obtained in 54 healthy control (HC) subjects a priori defined region of interest (ROI) values of medial temporal and parietal FDG-PET and medial temporal GM volume. In logistic regression analyses, these ROI values were tested together with neuropsychological test scores (free recall, trail making test B (TMT-B)) as predictors of HC conversion during a clinical follow-up between 3 and 4 years. In voxel-based analyses, FDG-PET and MRI GM maps were compared between HC converters and HC non-converters. Out of the 54 HC subjects, 11 subjects converted to MCI or AD dementia. Lower FDG-PET ROI values were associated with higher likelihood of conversion (p = 0.004), with the area under the curve (AUC) yielding 82.0% (95% CI = (95.5%, 68.5%)). The GM volume ROI was not a significant predictor (p = 0.07). TMT-B but not the free recall tests were a significant predictor (AUC = 71% (95% CI = 50.4%, 91.7%)). For the combination of FDG-PET and TMT-B, the AUC was 93.4% (sensitivity = 82%, specificity = 93%). Voxel-based group comparison showed reduced FDG-PET metabolism within the temporo-parietal and prefrontal cortex in HC converters. In conclusion, medial temporal and-parietal FDG-PET and executive function show a clinically acceptable accuracy for predicting clinical progression in elderly HC subjects.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it