Target Reliability Levels for Design and Assessment of Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes a set of reliability targets that can be used in the design and assessment of onshore natural gas pipelines. The targets were developed as part of a PRCI-sponsored project that aims to establish reliability-based methods as a viable alternative for pipeline design and assessment. The proposed targets are calibrated to meet risk levels that are considered widely acceptable. The proposed criteria are based on a detailed consideration of both societal and individual risk criteria. Two societal risk criteria were considered: the first based on a fixed expectation of the number of fatalities and the second based on a risk aversion function as characterized by a F/N relationship. Societal risk criteria were calibrated to match or exceed the average safety levels implied by current codes. Individual risk criteria were based on published tolerable levels. The target reliability levels corresponding to the three criteria are presented and a recommended set of targets is presented.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it