Variability-aware performance prediction: A statistical learning approach
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Configurable software systems allow stakeholders to derive program variants by selecting features. Understanding the correlation between feature selections and performance is important for stakeholders to be able to derive a program variant that meets their requirements. A major challenge in practice is to accurately predict performance based on a small sample of measured variants, especially when features interact. We propose a variability-aware approach to performance prediction via statistical learning. The approach works progressively with random samples, without additional effort to detect feature interactions. Empirical results on six real-world case studies demonstrate an average of 94% prediction accuracy based on small random samples. Furthermore, we investigate why the approach works by a comparative analysis of performance distributions. Finally, we compare our approach to an existing technique and guide users to choose one or the other in practice.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it