An Application of EM Test for the Bayesian Change Point Problem
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In any manufacturing process, identification of changes in the process conditions is of great interest. Recently, a Bayesian approach for the identification of the change in process mean was proposed assuming that the response of interest follow an exponential family distribution. In this approach, the expectation – maximization (EM) algorithm was used for estimating the process parameters. In general, the EM algorithm is computationally intensive and the optimality depends on the initial values of the parameters chosen. We extend the idea of the EM test for homogeneity to extend this Bayesian approach to the change point problem. Our simulations studies show that the developed EM test procedure converges at a faster rate than the original EM approach. Our studies also show that the EM test with binomial prior distribution leads to solutions very close to the true values. We have applied our approach to two case examples.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it