Predictive publish/subscribe matching
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new publish/subscribe capability is presented: the ability to predict the likelihood that a subscription will be matched at some point in the future. Knowing that some phenomenon of interest is about to take place, applications can take proactive steps to prevent the situation from occurring altogether, or speculatively begin reacting to the event even before it has transpired. A publish/subscribe matching algorithm is developed in which composite subscriptions consisting of temporal and logical operators are efficiently represented by a set of finite state machines and rules. The algorithm trains a Markov model to an application's event workload, and predicts the probability that a given subscription will match within a window in the future event stream. Evaluations demonstrate that the memory and processing costs of the algorithm scale well with the number of subscriptions, and the prediction precision is high, especially when the workload characteristics do not change rapidly. Furthermore, a comparison with a hand-crafted Markov model using real data traces shows that the algorithm consumes much less memory and processing power, yet still delivers prediction precision that approaches that of the hand-crafted model. This is especially impressive since the algorithms lack any of the domain expertise embedded in the hand-crafted model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".