OIL PRICES AND STOCK MARKET CORRELATION: A TIME-VARYING APPROACH
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the influence oil prices on stock market time-varying correlation. We consider five stock market indices from both oil-importing (US, UK and Germany) and oil-exporting economies (Canada and Norway) for the period 1988-2011. The findings from the DCC-GARCH framework suggest that the effects of oil price changes on stock market correlation are not constant over time and they depend on the status of the economy, i.e. whether it is oil-importing or oil-exporting. In addition, utilising the identification of oil price shocks by Kilian (2009) and Hamilton (2009a; 2009b) we find that the aggregate demand shocks and precautionary demand shocks tend to exercise a negative effect on stock market correlation, whereas no effects from the supply-side oil price shocks can be reported. These findings have important implications for international portfolio diversification and risk management.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it