On the Equivalence of Classic ROC Analysis and the Loss-function Model to Set Cut Points in Sequential Testing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In an effort to reduce the cost of administration for objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs), several authors have promoted the use of sequential testing in which all candidates take a short screening test and candidates who pass the screen are exempted from taking the full test. Traditionally, the determination of the optimally efficient cut point (passing score) for the screen has used ROC analysis to minimize false-positive and false-negative errors. Recently, Muijtjens et al. have questioned the appropriateness of the ROC method for these purposes and have promoted an alternative method that uses a "loss" formula. However, given certain theoretically derived conditions, it can be shown that the use of the loss formula is functionally identical to using ROC analysis, and the authors suggest that continued use of the ROC method is appropriate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.098 | 0.250 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.010 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".