Improved Grey predictor rolling models for wind power prediction
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new technique for one step ahead average hourly wind speed forecasting and wind turbines' output power prediction based on using the Grey predictor models is presented. The required mathematical formulation for developing the Grey predictor models is also presented. The obtained results from the proposed models are compared with the corresponding results obtained when using the persistent model. Utilising the traditional Grey model, GM(1,1) was first investigated and showed good improvement over the persistent model. However, the generated results demonstrate the presence of intervals with overshoots in the predicted values. To reduce such overshoots, a modified version for the Grey predictor model referred to as the adaptive alpha GM(1,1) model is investigated and two new models are proposed, hereafter, referred to as the improved Grey model and the averaged Grey model. The presented results demonstrate the effectiveness, the accuracy and the superiority of the proposed averaged Grey model for wind speed and wind power prediction.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it