Relative and absolute sea level rise in western Canada and northwestern United States from a combined tide gauge‐GPS analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Empirical studies and climate models suggest large variations of absolute sea level (ASL) changes between oceanic basins. Such potential variations raise concern on the applicability of global mean ASL predictions to specific regions and on estimates of relative sea level (RSL) hazards. We address this issue for the western Canada and northwestern United States coastline by estimating the 20th century ASL rate using a combination of 34 colocated tide gauge and Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. The tide gauge data are quality controlled and corrected for spatially and temporally correlated sea level transients in order to derive robust RSL trends and standard errors. Reference frame and other GPS‐specific issues are considered as part of the error budget in absolute GPS vertical velocities. Our combined tide gauge‐GPS analysis, aligned to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2000, indicates a northeast Pacific ASL rise of 1.8 ± 0.2 mm/a through the 20th century, which is similar to accepted rates for the global eustatic mean. For the period 1993–2003, we find a regional ASL rate of −4.4 ± 0.5 mm/a consistent with satellite altimetry. On the basis of the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4 mean scenario and our assessment of coastal motions from GPS and tide gauge data, we derive a map of predicted 21st century RSL rise in western Canada and the northwestern United States. Variations in coastal uplift strongly affect spatial RSL patterns. Subsidence of southern Puget Sound may significantly increase RSL rise in the Seattle‐Tacoma metropolitan area. Conversely, tectonic uplift along parts of the outer west coast may reduce future RSL rise by up to 50–100%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".