Approximate probabilities for runs and patterns in i.i.d. and Markov-dependent multistate trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Let X n (Λ) be the number of nonoverlapping occurrences of a simple pattern Λ in a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) multistate trials. For fixed k , the exact tail probability P{X n (∧) < k} is difficult to compute and tends to 0 exponentially as n → ∞. In this paper we use the finite Markov chain imbedding technique and standard matrix theory results to obtain an approximation for this tail probability. The result is extended to compound patterns, Markov-dependent multistate trials, and overlapping occurrences of Λ. Numerical comparisons with Poisson and normal approximations are provided. Results indicate that the proposed approximations perform very well and do significantly better than the Poisson and normal approximations in many cases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".