<title>Particle filters for combined state and parameter estimation</title>
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Filtering is a method of estimating the conditional probability distribution of a signal based upon a noisy, partial, corrupted sequence of observations of the signal. Particle filters are a method of filtering in which the conditional distribution of the signal state is approximated by the empirical measure of a large collection of particles, each evolving in the same probabilistic manner as the signal itself. In filtering, it is often assumed that we have a fixed model for the signal process. In this paper, we allow unknown parameters to appear in the signal model, and present an algorithm to estimate simultaneously both the parameters and the conditional distribution for the signal state using particle filters. This method is applicable to general nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems and can be used with various types of particle filters. It is believed to produce asymptotically optimal estimates of the state and the true parameter values, provided reasonable initial parameter estimates are given and further estimates are constrained to be in the vicinity of the true parameters. We demonstrate this method in the context of search and rescue problem using two different particle filters and compare the effectiveness of the two filters to each other.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it