Predictors of mortality in geriatric trauma patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The rate of mortality and factors predicting worst outcomes in the geriatric population presenting with trauma are not well established. This study aimed to examine mortality rates in severe and extremely severe injured individuals 65 years or older and to identify the predictors of mortality based on available evidence in the literature. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search on studies reporting mortality and severity of injury in geriatric trauma patients using MEDLINE, PubMed, and Web of Science. RESULTS: An overall mortality rate of 14.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8-21.7%) in geriatric trauma patients was observed. Increasing age and severity of injury were found to be associated with higher mortality rates in this patient population. Combined odds of dying in those older than 74 years was 1.67 (95% CI, 1.34-2.08) compared with the elderly population aged 65 years to 74 years. However, the odds of dying in patients 85 years and older compared with those of 75 years to 84 years was not different (odds ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.99-1.52). A pooled mortality rate of 26.5% (95% CI, 23.4-29.8%) was observed in the severely injured (Injury Severity Score [ISS] ≥ 16) geriatric trauma patients. Compared with those with mild or moderate injury, the odds of mortality in severe and extremely severe injuries were 9.5 (95% CI, 6.3-14.5) and 52.3 (95% CI, 32.0-85.5; p ≤ 0.0001), respectively. Low systolic blood pressure had a pooled odds of 2.16 (95% CI, 1.59-2.94) for mortality. CONCLUSION: Overall mortality rate among the geriatric population presenting with trauma is higher than among the adult trauma population. Patients older than 74 years experiencing traumatic injuries are at a higher risk for mortality than the younger geriatric group. However, the trauma-related mortality sustains the same rate after the age of 74 years without any further increase. Moreover, severe and extremely severe injuries and low systolic blood pressure at the presentation among geriatric trauma patients are significant risk factors for mortality. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Systematic review and meta-analysis, level IV.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".