International Order and Global Swing States

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. This article draws on Daniel M. Kliman and Richard Fontaine, Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order, (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security and the German Marshall Fund of the United States, November 2012), http://www.cnas.org/globalswingstates. We are not the first to use the term “swing state” outside a domestic American context but the application of the term to these four countries and their relationship to the international order is new. For other uses, see Parag Khanna, “Waving Goodbye to Hegemony,” The New York Times Magazine, January 27, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0; C. Raja Mohan, “India and the Balance of Power,” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (July/August 2006); and Ashley J. Tellis, “India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States” (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), 30, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/Tellis.India.Global.Power.FINAL.pdf. 2. On the founding of the United Nations, see Paul Kennedy, The Parliament of Man: The Past, Present, and Future of the United Nations (New York: Vintage, 2007). 3. A seminal work on the establishment of this order is G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2011). 4. Gareth Evans and Mohamed Sahnoun, “The Responsibility to Protect” (Ottowa, Canada: International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty, December 2001), http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/ICISS%20Report.pdf. 5. Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2010: Democracy in Retreat, (The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited, The Economist, 2012), 1, http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy_Index_2010_web.pdf. 6. Francis Fukuyama, for example, predicted the eventual triumph of the human rights pillar of the rules-based order in The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1992). 7. Arch Puddington, Freedom in the World 2012: The Arab Uprisings and Their Global Repercussions (Freedom House, 2012), 29, http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/inline_images/FIW%202012%20Booklet–Final.pdf. 8. Lt. Gen. (ret) David W. Barno, Nora Bensahel, Travis Sharp, and Matthew Irvine, Sustainable Pre-eminence: Reforming the U.S. Military at a Time of Strategic Change, (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, May 2012), http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_SustainablePreeminence_BarnoBensahelIrvineSharp_0.pdf; Michael Bimbaum, “Cuts in European Defense Budgets Raise Concerns for U.S., NATO,” The Washington Post, February 15, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021403542.html; and Honor Mahony, “Europe Entering Age of ‘Aid Austerity,’” EU Observer, April 4, 2012, http://euobserver.com/foreign/115801. 9. Charles Kupchan describes some of the possibilities in No One's World: The West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012). 10. All GDP figures listed in this section are based on GDP purchasing-power parity (constant 2005 international dollar) figures from the World Bank's “World Development Indicators Database.” Data for these countries is available at http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=12&id=4&CNO=2. 11. Brazil successfully induced the IMF to rethink the use of capital controls and develop a new framework for their use. “IMF Develops Framework to Manage Capital Inflows,” International Monetary Fund, April 5, 2011, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/NEW040511B.htm; Quentin Peel, “Brazil Calls for Currency System Overhaul,” Financial Times, February 19, 2011, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/61d3afea-3bc7-11e0-a96d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2CF5gfI00. 12. Matias Specktor, “Humanitarian Intervention Brazilian Style?” Americas Quarterly (Summer 2012), http://www.americasquarterly.org/humanitarian-interventionism-brazilian-style. 13. Donald L. Berlin, “India in the Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review 59, no. 2 (Spring 2006): 72, http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/cc7b0300-af3a-47be-99c4-4dd3cb9c801a/India-in-the-Indian-Ocean—Berlin,-Donald-L-. 14. Ben Bland, “Protectionism hits Indonesia's reputation,” The Financial Times, June 12, 2012, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f1ae262-b46e-11e1-bb2e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2B02MJ0Nu. 15. Kate Lamb, “Indonesia Pledges $1 Billion to IMF,” Voice of America News, July 10, 2012, http://www.voanews.com/content/indonesia-pledges-1-billion-to-imf/1381892.html; John D. Ciorciari, “Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization,” Asia Survey 51, no. 5 (September/October 2011): 926-952. 16. In 2010, the Indonesian government submitted a letter to the UN contesting Beijing's claims. Letter from the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Indonesia to Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, July 8, 2010, http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/mysvnm33_09/idn_2010re_mys_vnm_e.pdf 17. Victor Huang, “Building Maritime Security in Southeast Asia, Outsiders Not Welcome?” Naval War College Review 61, no.1 (Winter 2008), http://www.usnwc.edu/getattachment/754796b4-0f67-463e-a495-17872e705970/Buildling-Maritime-Security-in-Southeast-Asia–Out; Michael Schuman, “How to Defeat Pirates: Success in the Strait,” Time, April 22, 2009, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1893032,00.html. 18. Stephanie Lieggi, “The Nonproliferation Tiger: Indonesia's Impact on Nonproliferation in Asia and Beyond,” Nuclear Threat Initiative, March 5, 2012, http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/nonproliferation-tiger-indonesias-impact-nonproliferation-asia-and-beyond/. 19. “PM Erdoğan pledges $5 billion for IMF fund at G-20 summit,” Today's Zaman, June 19, 2012, http://www.todayszaman.com/news-284028-pm-erdogan-pledges-5-billion-for-imf-fund-at-g-20-summit.html. 20. Alper Ali Riza, “The Law of the Sea: Turkey vs. Cyprus,” Today's Zaman, December 13, 2011. 21. Stefanos Evripidou, “Turkey warns 15 countries to stay away from Cyprus’ gas,” Cyprus Mail, August 1, 2012, http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/turkey-warns-15-countries-stay-away-cyprus-gas/20120801. 22. Interview with an Indian business representative, New Delhi, July 2012; and interview with a Turkish business representative, Ankara, April 2012. 23. The U.S. government has already started to leverage the Indian private sector on general development cooperation initiatives. See the Embassy of the United States, New Delhi, India, “USAID–FICCI Millenium Alliance announces first call for applications,” July 10, 2012, http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/pr071012.html. With Brazilian businesses investing heavily in West Africa, achieving stable investment frameworks has become a major item of concern. Interview with a Brazilian business representative, Rio de Janeiro, August 2012. 24. This is reportedly Indonesia's next nonproliferation target. Interview with a senior Indonesian official, Jakarta, July 2012. 25. We are indebted to Megan Garcia for suggesting this. Jennifer Jett, “Indonesia Could be Major Regional Player in Nuclear Power: IAEA Official,” The Jakarta Globe, December 10, 2010, http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/news/indonesia-could-be-major-regional-player-in-nuclear-power-iaea-official/411074. 26. In fiscal year 2011, Turkey received almost $4 million in IMET funding, compared with $631,000 for Brazil, $1.6 million for India and $1.8 million for Indonesia. U.S. Department of State, Congressional Budget Justification, Vol. 2, Fiscal Year 2013: Foreign Operations, (April 2012), 493-497, http://transition.usaid.gov/performance/cbj/185014.pdf 27. The America-Australian Association's sponsoring of an APSA Fellowship could serve as one model. “International Scholars: Congressional Fellowship Program,” The American Political Science Association, http://www.apsanet.org/content_3160.cfm. 28. Draws on a recommendation from Daniel M. Kliman and Joshua W. Walker, “The West Must Engage, Not Demonize Turkey,” The Christian Science Monitor, August 3, 2010, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/0803/The-West-must-engage-not-demonize-Turkey. 29. Aaron Friedberg, A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2011); and Ian Johnston, “Is China a Status Quo Power?” International Security, 27, no. 4 (Spring 2003), 5–56. 30. We are indebted to Alex Lennon for bringing this point to our attention. Additional informationNotes on contributorsRichard FontaineRichard Fontaine is President at the Center for a New American SecurityDaniel M. KlimanDaniel M. Kliman is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States

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