Range expansion of <em> Ixodes scapularis</em> ticks and of <em> Borrelia burgdorferi</em> by migratory birds
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent studies have suggested that the risk of exposure to Lyme disease is emerging in Canada because of the expanding range of I. scapularis ticks. The wide geographic breeding range of I. scapularis-carrying migratory birds is consistent with the widespread geographical occurrence of I. scapularis in Canada. However, how important migratory birds from the United States are for the establishment and the stable endemic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in Canada remains an issue of theoretical challenge and practical significance. In this paper, we design and analyze a periodic model of differential equations with a forcing term modeling the annual bird migration to address the aforementioned issue. Our results show that ticks can establish in any migratory bird stopovers and breeding sites. Moreover, bird-transported ticks may increase the probability of B.burgdorferi establishment in a tick-endemic habitat.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it