The Market Demand for University Press Books 2008–15
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article analyzes important US university press net publishers' revenue and net publishers' unit datasets and e-book revenues for 2008–9. Data for net publishers' revenues, net publishers' units, and digital e-book revenues for higher education textbooks, professional and scholarly books, and consumer e-books were also evaluated covering the years 2008–9. Drawing on important economic data projections and the publicly available competitive print and digital strategies crafted by competitors in the consumer, higher education, and professional and scholarly sectors, the authors develop net publishers' revenue and unit projections for all of these book categories for 2010–15. The university press data sets reveal unsettling declines in revenues and units for 2008–2015. Addressing these declines, the authors conclude with a brief series of recommendations, including the rapid adoption of a digital 'e-book' business model in order to reposition the presses in what is becoming a digital book marketplace.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".