Problems in financial engineering: convergence of the stochastic mesh estimator for pricing American options
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Broadie and Glasserman proposed a simulation-based method they named stochastic mesh for pricing high dimensional American options. Based on simulated states of the assets underlying the option at each exercise opportunity, the method produces an estimator of the option value at each sampled state. Under the mild assumption of the finiteness of certain moments, we derive an asymptotic upper bound on the probability of error of the mesh estimator, where both the error size and the probability bound vanish as the sample size increases. We include the empirical performance for the test problems used by Broadie and Glasserman in a recent unpublished manuscript. We find that the mesh estimator has large bias that decays very slowly with the sample size, suggesting that in application it will most likely be necessary to employ bias and/or variance reduction techniques.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it