Identifying growth releases in dendrochronological studies of forest disturbance
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Information on historical disturbances is vital to our understanding of current forest conditions. Dendro chronological methods provide one means of reconstructing disturbance histories in temperate and boreal forests. In particular, the dates of significant growth releases recorded on surviving trees provide strong inferential evidence of past disturbance events. The most common method of detecting releases (the percent-increase method) expresses the postevent growth increase as a percentage of the preevent rate. Despite its widespread use, the method is known to be overly sensitive at low rates of prior growth and overly stringent at high rates. We present an alternative method that directly follows the percent-increase method, but instead of dividing the postevent growth rate by the preevent rate, we simply subtract the two. If the difference exceeds a predetermined species-specific threshold, the event is considered a release. This absolute-increase method has convenient properties that remedy the shortcomings of the percent-increase method. We tested the validity of the absolute-increase thresholds by binary logistic regressions, and we compared the absolute- and percent-increase methods by various methods. We conclude that for the species evaluated in this study, the absolute-increase method represents an improvement over the standard percent-increase method.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it