The Determinants of Open and Closed Borders
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Why do some states restrict access to citizens from neighboring states? We explain entry restrictions into states by using a theoretical framework that combines the effects of asymmetrical development, democracy, and interstate conflict with a geographic variable that considers interactions based on neighboring urban settlements. We employ passport and visa requirements as a dependent variable. We apply an ordered probit analysis to test our hypotheses about why states open or close their borders to citizens from neighboring states. We also incorporate Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as an analytical tool. The results show that the greater the differential in development between two neighboring states, the less likely the richer state will be open to citizens from its poorer neighbor. The presence of urban settlements, enduring peace, and democracy increase the likelihood of border openness between neighboring states, although international trade has no effect on the degree of openness.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it