A paleoclimatic context for the drought of 1999–2001 in the northern Great Plains of North America
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The least annual precipitation in the western interior of North America occurs in the northern Great Plains, including an area that encompasses parts of south‐eastern Alberta, south‐western Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. During 1999–2001, most climate stations in this region had record low precipitation. This paper examines this three‐year drought in the context of historical climate records from Medicine Hat, Alberta and Havre, Montana and summer (June–July) and annual (August–July) precipitation reconstructed from standardized tree‐ring widths (residual chronologies) from Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine) sampled in the Cypress Hills of Alberta and Saskatchewan and the Bears Paw Mountains of north‐central Montana. Drought is operationally defined as precipitation in the lower 10th and 20th percentiles. Plots of reconstructed precipitation and cumulative departure from median values indicate a shift in climate variability prior to the twentieth century, when EuroCanadians settled in this region. The eighteenth and nineteenth centuries are characterized by sustained periods of progressively wetter and drier conditions, including prolonged drought. Various archival sources document the significant impacts of these prolonged droughts. While drought was frequent in the twentieth century, it tended to be of short duration and the impacts also were ameliorated by intervening periods of relatively high precipitation. Increasing aridity in response to global warming could expose a larger area of the northern Great Plains to the impacts of drought.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it