Predicting Small-Molecule Solvation Free Energies: An Informal Blind Test for Computational Chemistry
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Experimental data on the transfer of small molecules between vacuum and water are relatively sparse. This makes it difficult to assess whether computational methods are truly predictive of this important quantity or merely good at explaining what has been seen. To explore this, a prospective test was performed of two different methods for estimating solvation free energies: an implicit solvent approach based on the Poisson-Boltzmann equation and an explicit solvent approach using alchemical free energy calculations. For a set of 17 small molecules, root mean square errors from experiment were between 1.3 and 2.6 kcal/mol, with the explicit solvent free energy approach yielding somewhat greater accuracy but at greater computational expense. Insights from outliers and suggestions for future prospective challenges of this kind are presented.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it