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Record W2068517859 · doi:10.1097/rti.0000000000000142

Application of Risk Prediction Models to Lung Cancer Screening

2015· review· en· W2068517859 on OpenAlexaff
Martin C. Tammemägi

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Thoracic Imaging · 2015
Typereview
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicLung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
Canadian institutionsBrock University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineLung cancer screeningNational Lung Screening TrialLung cancerFalse positive paradoxCancerRisk assessmentSmoking cessationIntensive care medicineInternal medicinePathologyArtificial intelligence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Globally, lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death and is a major public health problem. Because lung cancer is usually diagnosed at an advanced stage, survival is generally poor. In recent decades, clinical advances have not led to marked improvements in outcomes. A recent advance of importance arose when the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) findings indicated that low-dose computed tomography screening of high-risk individuals can lead to a lung cancer mortality reduction of 20%. NLST identified high-risk individuals using the following criteria: age 55 to 74 years; ≥30 pack-years of smoking; and number of years since smoking cessation ≤15 years. Medical screening is most effective when applied to high-risk individuals. The NLST criteria for high risk were practical for enrolling individuals into a clinical trial but are not optimal for risk estimation. Lung cancer risk prediction models are expected to be superior. Indeed, recently, 3 studies have provided quantitative evidence that selection of individuals for lung screening on the basis of estimates from high-quality risk prediction models is superior to using NLST criteria or similar criteria, such as the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria. Compared with NLST/USPSTF criteria, selection of individuals for screening using high-quality risk models should lead to fewer individuals being screened, more cancers being detected, and fewer false positives. More lives will be saved with greater cost-effectiveness. In this paper, we review methodological background for prediction modeling, existing lung cancer risk prediction models and some of their findings, and current issues in lung cancer risk prediction modeling and discuss future research.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.024
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.092
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Systematic review · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.024
Threshold uncertainty score0.125

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0240.092
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.003
Bibliometrics0.0030.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0030.002
Open science0.0030.002
Research integrity0.0020.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.055
GPT teacher head0.437
Teacher spread0.382 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSystematic review
Domainnot available
GenreReview

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations87
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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