The current and future potential distribution of <i>Cytisus scoparius</i>: a weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Cytisus scoparius is a serious weed of pastoral systems, natural ecosystems and plantation forestry, which has become invasive in a number of countries. CLIMEX™ was used to infer the climatic requirements of C. scoparius from its native range, as well as its current range as an exotic in the United States and New Zealand. The parameterised model was used to examine the invasive potential of C. scoparius under current and future climatic conditions, assuming a range of climate‐change scenarios. The modelled global potential distribution of C. scoparius compared favourably with the known distributions, in both the fitted and validation dataset, encompassing almost all temperate and Mediterranean regions. The predicted distribution also included most sub‐tropical regions and extended into continental areas in North America and Europe and savanna regions in Africa. Under current climate, the projected potential distribution exceeded the known distribution. Places most at risk from range expansion include China, Australia, Argentina and North America, as C. scoparius is already present, but has not yet colonised all areas with apparently high climatic suitability. Climate change is likely to lead to a poleward shift in the range of C. scoparius and a contraction of areas of suitable climate for the species in southern Europe, central Africa, Australia, China, Brazil and the southern United States. With climate change, currently uncolonised areas within northern Scandinavia, southern Canada and western regions of the Russian Federation are projected to become climatically suitable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".