Quadratic Risk Minimization in a Regime-Switching Model with Portfolio Constraints
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study a problem of stochastic control in mathematical finance, for which the asset prices are modeled by Itô processes. The market parameters exhibit “regime-switching” in the sense of being adapted to the joint filtration of the Brownian motion in the asset price models and a given finite-state Markov chain which models “regimes” of the market. The goal is to minimize a general quadratic loss function of the wealth at close of trade subject to the constraint that the vector of dollar amounts in each stock remains within a given closed convex set. We apply a conjugate duality approach, the essence of which is to establish existence of a solution to an associated dual problem and then use optimality relations to construct an optimal portfolio in terms of this solution. The optimality relations are also used to compute explicit optimal portfolios for various convex cone constraints when the market parameters are adapted specifically to the Markov chain.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it