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Record W2068812879 · doi:10.3141/1769-04

Guidelines for Probabilistic Pavement Life Cycle Cost Analysis

2001· article· en· W2068812879 on OpenAlexaffabout
Susan Tighe

Bibliographic record

VenueTransportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · 2001
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicLife Cycle Costing Analysis
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
Fundersnot available
KeywordsProbabilistic logicLife-cycle cost analysisPavement engineeringProbabilistic analysis of algorithmsProbability distributionActivity-based costingVariance (accounting)Log-normal distributionOperations researchComputer scienceEngineeringTransport engineeringEconometricsReliability engineeringStatisticsMathematicsEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

To select the most appropriate pavement design for a given situation, it is necessary to understand how the pavement properties and in-service conditions relate to performance and life cycle cost. A given design may be most appropriate on one type of road and least appropriate on another type of road. This design selection is further complicated by the advent of new design methodologies, materials, and construction delivery techniques. Life cycle economic analysis is an important tool for comparing alternative treatment strategies. A life cycle analysis can use a deterministic approach, which incorporates a single point value, or it can use a probabilistic approach, which includes a mean, variance, and probability distribution. The probabilistic approach is better suited to describing the uncertainty associated with engineering. The Canadian Strategic Highway Research Program Canadian Long-Term Pavement Performance database and data provided by the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario were used in this analysis. Most construction variables are generally believed to be best described by a normal distribution. However, a lognormal probability distribution is better suited to describing these variables. This best fit is based on both a mathematical examination and a comparison of similar variables such as stocks and real estate values. It is also shown that thickness is a probabilistic variable that should be combined with the cost and incorporated into pavement life cycle costing. Ignoring the lognormal nature of these variables introduces bias into a life cycle cost analysis and does not reflect the true overall cost.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.020
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.079
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.021
Threshold uncertainty score0.104

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0200.079
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0040.003
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.003
Bibliometrics0.0110.011
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0060.005
Open science0.0090.003
Research integrity0.0040.007
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0210.016

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.213
GPT teacher head0.420
Teacher spread0.207 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations89
Published2001
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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