A Risk Model Based on Markov Chains with Marked Transitions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this article, we introduce a multivariate risk process with multiple types of claims. This model is based on the so-called Markov chain with marked transitions introduced in He and Neuts.[ 13 He , Q.-M. ; Neuts , M.F. Markov chains with marked transitions . Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 1998 , 74 ( 1 ), 37 – 52 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] ] It allows dependencies among the claim frequencies, among the claim severities, as well as between claim frequencies and claim sizes. We first derive formulas for the probabilities ruin due to different types of losses using classical root-finding techniques and then we show that the ruin probabilities may be obtained by coupling the risk process to a fluid queue.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it