Industry Cycles in the US Softwood Lumber Industry: 1985 through 2010
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Cyclical patterns in business activity are a common feature of industry in market economies. This study identifies and describes industry cycles in the US softwood lumber industry from 1985 to 2010. Statistical decomposition and filtering procedures are applied to time series data on sales volumes to extract the cyclical component, and nonparametric techniques are used to date the industry cycles. The study identifies four softwood lumber industry cycles: three coincident with business cycles and one attributable to developments in the US–Canada softwood lumber trade dispute. Softwood lumber industry cycle durations ranged between 5 and 6 years. Decline in seasonally adjusted softwood lumber industry business activity caused by cyclic contractions averaged 13 percent for the period under study, with the most recent contraction (January 2006 to March 2009) contributing a 22 percent decline in business activity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it