Probabilistic sampling of protein conformations: New hope for brute force?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Protein structure prediction from sequence alone by "brute force" random methods is a computationally expensive problem. Estimates have suggested that it could take all the computers in the world longer than the age of the universe to compute the structure of a single 200-residue protein. Here we investigate the use of a faster version of our FOLDTRAJ probabilistic all-atom protein-structure-sampling algorithm. We have improved the method so that it is now over twenty times faster than originally reported, and capable of rapidly sampling conformational space without lattices. It uses geometrical constraints and a Leonard-Jones type potential for self-avoidance. We have also implemented a novel method to add secondary structure-prediction information to make protein-like amounts of secondary structure in sampled structures. In a set of 100,000 probabilistic conformers of 1VII, 1ENH, and 1PMC generated, the structures with smallest Calpha RMSD from native are 3.95, 5.12, and 5.95A, respectively. Expanding this test to a set of 17 distinct protein folds, we find that all-helical structures are "hit" by brute force more frequently than beta or mixed structures. For small helical proteins or very small non-helical ones, this approach should have a "hit" close enough to detect with a good scoring function in a pool of several million conformers. By fitting the distribution of RMSDs from the native state of each of the 17 sets of conformers to the extreme value distribution, we are able to estimate the size of conformational space for each. With a 0.5A RMSD cutoff, the number of conformers is roughly 2N where N is the number of residues in the protein. This is smaller than previous estimates, indicating an average of only two possible conformations per residue when sterics are accounted for. Our method reduces the effective number of conformations available at each residue by probabilistic bias, without requiring any particular discretization of residue conformational space, and is the fastest method of its kind. With computer speeds doubling every 18 months and parallel and distributed computing becoming more practical, the brute force approach to protein structure prediction may yet have some hope in the near future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.044 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".