Testing Recursive Path Models With Correlated Errors Using D-Separation
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article shows how to extend the inferential test of Shipley (2000b), which is applicable to recursive path models without correlated errors (a directed acyclic graph [DAG] model), to a class of recursive path models that include correlated errors (a semi-Markov model). The path model is first converted to a partial ancestral graph (PAG) and then, for PAGs that do not require latent variables, an inducing path DAG is obtained that is equivalent in its conditional independence relations to the original path model. The null probabilities of the k tests of independence that are implied by this DAG are combined using Fisher's test statistic C = -2ΣLn(pi), which is distributed as a chi-square variate with 2k degrees of freedom.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it