Myth and reality: interpreting the dynamics of crime trends: lies, damn lies and (criminal) statistics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recently released statistics from Statistics Canada appear to be creating a dissonance between official statistics and victimization studies. This dissonance is confirmed and a Funnel Theory is posited to relieve the dissonance and provide a single explanation of the disparate statistics. Funnel Theory holds that changes in the criminal legal process are determinative of the changes in criminal statistics. The impacts of changes in police reporting, digital technology and court decisions are examined using the lens of the Funnel Theory. This examination demonstrates the growing incapacity of the criminal legal system to deal with actual crime levels or to satisfy public demands for effective response to criminal behaviour.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.033 | 0.126 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.020 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.014 | 0.019 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".