Population trends and conservation status of the Northern Rockhopper Penguin<i>Eudyptes moseleyi</i>at Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Populations of the recently split Northern Rockhopper Penguin Eudyptes moseleyi are restricted to Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island in the South Atlantic, and Amsterdam and St Paul in the Indian Ocean. The majority of the population is in the Atlantic (> 80%), but population trends at Tristan da Cunha and Gough are uncertain. Early records indicate “millions” of penguins used to occur at Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island. The most recent estimates indicate declines in excess of 90% for both Gough and the main island of Tristan that have occurred over at least 45 and 130 years, respectively. Numbers breeding at Inaccessible and Nightingale islands (TDC) also may have declined since the 1970s, albeit modestly, whereas numbers on Tristan appear stable over the last few decades. Current population estimates are 32,000–65,000 pairs at Gough, 18–27,000 at Inaccessible, 19,500 at Nightingale, and 3,200–4,500 at Tristan. Numbers and trends at Middle Island (TDC) are unknown. Middle Island supported an estimated 100,000 pairs in 1973, and recent observations suggest this colony is being impacted by competition for space with recently recolonising Subantarctic Fur Seals Arctocephalus tropicalis . Past human exploitation and the impact of introduced predators may be responsible for the historical decline in numbers at Tristan, but these factors cannot explain the sharp decrease (since the 1950s) at Gough Island. Overall, declines at Gough, Tristan, Nightingale and Inaccessible islands indicate a three-generation decline of > 50%. Taken in combination with recent decreases in Indian Ocean populations, the Northern Rockhopper Penguins is now categorised as globally ‘Endangered’. Determining the causal factors responsible for these recent declines is an urgent priority.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it